Going into the Thanksgiving Day games, it’s time to talk turkey. Will this post be filled with endless and completely ridiculous Thanksgiving puns? Let’s just put it this way: you’ll be thankful when it’s over. (See last week here.)
The Contenders
New York Giants (6-4)
I’m leaving them on here, but they’re handing by a wishbone. Eli is good for 1-2 dumb plays a game, and I don’t trust the defense to stop an explosive offense on the road in the playoffs (like Atlanta).
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
Despite a brutal offensive line and some questions about the defense getting worse as the season goes on, I still fear the Steelers (though not like I did 3-4 weeks ago).
New England Patriots (8-2)
The Pats easily could be 7-3 and I would have debated whether it was fair to keep them among my Elite 6, but Peyton Manning was not Peyton Manning on Sunday. Oh, and I’m not sure when the offensive play calling for New England was handed over to Brad Childress, but take some shots down the field in the fourth quarter please.
Atlanta Falcons (8-2)
I keep hearing very smart people say the Falcons are not legitimate contenders because they aren’t very good on the road or outside of a dome. So what? They are currently one game ahead in the race for homefield, and they play the following schedule from here on out: GB, @ Tampa, @ Carolina, @ Seattle, NO, Carolina. Don’t they win at least four of those? Will anyone else finish better than 12-4 in the NFC? I think the Falcons are the current NFC Super Bowl favorite, with only the Eagles being that close to them.
Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
So Vick is playing well. And the defense is better than you think. Why do I get the feeling they are going to stumble down the stretch? That all this Vick for MVP talk may sound silly six weeks from now? That being said, if the playoffs started today, I think they beat anybody in the NFC on any field, except for maybe Atlanta.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
I keep moving the Ravens on and off my list; they befuddle me. But they are just good enough at everything that they could make a deep playoff run.
Bumped since week 10: New York Jets (8-2)
That’s right, I bounced the Jets. I think their luck is going to run out, and though they might make the playoffs, I don’t think the breaks will continue against better competition. If they beat the Patriots in week 13 and/or the Steelers in week 15, they are back on.
Knocking on the door: New York Jets (8-2); New Orleans Saints (7-3); Green Bay Packers (7-3); Tampa Bay Bucs (7-3); Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
Super Bowl Pick: Patriots beat the Falcons
The Turkeys
Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
A preseason darling pick turned into disaster. I can say this is a little surprising, but they certainly had bust potential: bad coach, overrated QB, large holes in the defense. I just thought the offense would be top 5 — and it’s barely top 20. And the thought of Dallas hosting the Eagles or Giants in the Super Bowl is pretty funny.
San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
Another preseason darling gone wrong. One piece of advice: do not hinge your hopes on a QB with a lifetime QB rating of 70 and a completion % below 57. Just saying.
Houston Texans (4-6)
Remember when the Texans were 3-1 and seemed like the favorites to win the AFC South? I can’t imagine coach Gary Kubiak makes it past this season. I know some fans and media are pointing at Matt Schaub, but the offense is good while the defense is historically atrocious; pretty sure he has nothing to do with baking that pie.
Will Be Turkeys by Christmas
Chicago Bears (7-3)
Like the visions you may dream after eating too much, this team is not for real. Yes, I can hear Charles Barkley in my head saying, “You’re as good as your record!”, but are they really? They have one really quality win: Green Bay at home. Yes, if they beat Philly on Sunday and take down New England in week 14, I may eat some crow. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 23th best team in football, so I think them not making the playoffs is just as likely as them making the playoffs. (This confusing and completely unhelpful sentence was sponsored by the John Madden turducken.)
Washington Redskins (5-5)
Shanahans & Co. are hanging around, but stick a fork in ’em. They are Chicago, but with the record to match, and I really think this marriage with Donovan ends poorly. Maybe not Favre in Minnesota poorly, but we’re grading on a curve.
The Adam Bomb 