NFL Teams That Matter: The Cream Rises

Who’s the best team in the NFC? Your guess is as good as mine. Did Atlanta show too much vulnerability on Monday night? Are the Saints too mistake prone this season (looking at you, Mr. Brees)? Has Michael Vick taken too many shots to stay productive for a deep playoff run? The NFC feels like a complete toss-up to me. Before Monday and Tuesday night, I thought the Falcons and Eagles were the clear conference favorites. Now, I’m not so sure.

I am not sure what to make of Monday night’s Saints-Falcons showdown in Atlanta. I will ask one thing: can we dispense with the whole Matty Ice nickname until the guy has won an important game? I am not a Matt Ryan basher, but clutch nicknames should be saved for people who are, well, clutch.

The Falcons defense played extremely well against a high-powered team. Brees made two really dumb mistakes (three if you count that idiotic shovel pass to Pierre Thomas that got the ball back to the line of scrimmage) that they turned into touchdowns. It was clear that Atlanta’s defensive gameplan was to blitz the heck out of Brees and force him into dumb mistakes. Though they gave up some yardage, the Falcons’  D played well enough to win.

The offense and Matty Vanilla Ice, not so much. The Saints were a top 10 defense according to Football Outsiders coming into the game, the Falcons the 9th best offense. But they couldn’t run the ball and only managed 215 total yards. With both of the touchdowns coming off of turnovers, the offense showed a scary level of incompetence.

Last time I did this,  I had Atlanta as the top team in the NFC and my favorite to lose to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. What do I make of the NFC now? I like the Saints in the NFC, but only by a hair.

Also, when I originally wrote this on Monday night (before Philadelphia’s ugly loss to the Vikings) I had the Eagles as the team to beat in the NFC; now they are not even in my list of six. I think Vick is too beat up and that the good defenses in the league are figuring him out. So everything has changed for me — that’s how crazy the NFC is this season.

The team I really reconsidered was the Chicago Bears. I have been thinking all season that they’re not very good, that they have feasted on poor teams to inflate their record. If you look at advanced stats, Chicago looks pretty mediocre. But they have won seven of eight games, with the only loss against New England. They have wins against the Eagles and Jets in that time. Yes, they lost to Seattle and Washington earlier in the season, but that was back when I thought the Giants were the best team in the NFC, so a lot has changed. So while I wouldn’t really count on Jay Cutler in the playoffs, and I think good passing offenses (like the Saints) will give a good defense trouble, I can’t ignore them any longer.

1. New England Patriots (13-2)
2. New Orleans Saints (11-4)
3. Baltimore Ravens (11-4)
4. Atlanta Falcons (12-3)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (11-4)
6. Chicago Bears (11-4)

Added since week 13: Ravens, Bears

Dropped since week 13: Eagles

Outside looking up: Philadelphia Eagles (10-5), Green Bay Packers (9-6), New York Jets (10-5), Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)

Quick Hits

• Mike Singletary was an absolute disaster as a coach, and I think the 49ers opening becomes the prime potential landing spot for the big-name coaching candidates. I bet Jon Gruden has been waiting for this one.
• I engaged in a tweet battle with SI’s Peter King last week regarding the way Giants coach Tom Coughlin responded to the end of that devastating loss to the Eagles. King defended Coughlin’s behavior because the punter screwed up. I am not a fan of chewing out players for physical mistakes; obviously Giants punter Matt Dodge did not want to kick it to showboat speedster DeSean Jackson, and it was a bad mistake. But he didn’t overrun the play, he didn’t give up all the touchdowns before that, he didn’t make atrocious play calling or turn the ball over twice. And he certainly didn’t lose the next game to Green Bay in embarrassing fashion. I think Coughlin showed his character as a coach, and if I was the owner, I would show him the door (after publicly chewing him out, of course).
• Sam Bradford is the real deal. Yes, he’s lost steam. Yes, he sports a pedestrian 78.0 QB rating. And yes, he’s been exposed a little recently by the Chiefs and Saints. But someday he will be talked about as one of the league’s elite QBs, and his emergence will tip the balance of power in the NFC West (if power can be tipped where there is none), and possibly the entire conference.

NFL Teams That Matter: The Playoffs are Coming

The Patriots are the team to beat in the NFL right now. Obviously I can be accused of bias — I am a New England fan. Fine, point the bias gun at me and shoot away.

But did you see that beatdown they smacked the Jets with last night? Everybody knows how potent the offense is, that Tom Brady is having another amazing season, that despite jettisoning Randy Moss, the offense has thrived. And the defense, while still in the bottom third of the NFL, is a young, improving unit with some player makers. So while I don’t think there are any givens in the NFL (and the 2007 Patriots surely showed that), they are the NFL’s best team today, and that’s something 31 other teams can’t say.

I am changing my format a little. Instead of listing them by how long they’ve been on the list, here are my five Super Bowl contenders ranked in order. I cut the list down to five because I only felt good about two AFC teams.

The Contenders

1. Patriots (10-2). In case you missed it, the Pats dominated the Jets last night to the tune of 45-3. It was one of the most impressive beatdowns I’ve seen one good team give another in a long time. Achilles heal: The defense, which looked great against a mediocre Jets offense, is still susceptible to good offenses. The nice thing is that the only really good AFC offense that’s likely to make the playoffs is the Chiefs.
2. Falcons (10-2). The mainstream media is finally catching the vision: as the NFC leaders at 10-2, the Falcons are likely to have homefield advantage through the playoffs. They are 6-0 at home in 2010, and Matt Ryan is like 47-1 at home life time. Yeah, they’re the NFC favorites. Achilles Heal: Playing on the road. If they stumble down the stretch, their playoff run could be very short.
3. Saints (9-3). Remember when New Orleans was 4-3 and we were talking about whether a Super Bowl hangover would keep them out of the playoffs? Six wins later, they seem like the team most likely to unseat the Falcons in the NFC. Achilles Heal: During this 5-game win streak, only one win (Pittsburgh) has come against a quality opponent. They may not be as good as we think.
4. Steelers (9-3). After beating the Ravens, I think the Steelers have cemented their place as the second team in the AFC, especially since Ben will not miss any time with his broken nose. Achilles Heal: Pittsburgh’s three loses this year: Baltimore, New England, @ New Orleans. Victories against teams above .500: Atlanta, @ Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore. They are inconsistent against good teams (but they do beat all the lesser teams).
5. Eagles (8-4). Call this the Vick factor. Do I think they can beat the Falcons on the road? Probably not. Do I think they’re better than the Saints? No. But if Vick got hot, would it shock me to see them playing in the Super Bowl? Absolutely not. Achilles Heal: The most recent (and relevant) loses have come on the road to lesser teams than New Orleans or Atlanta (@ Titans, @ Bears).

Knocked off since Week 11: Giants (8-4); Ravens (8-4)

Outside looking up: Jets (9-3); Ravens (8-4); Giants (8-4); Packers (8-4)

NFL Teams the Matter: Turkey Edition

Going into the Thanksgiving Day games, it’s time to talk turkey. Will this post be filled with endless and completely ridiculous Thanksgiving puns? Let’s just put it this way: you’ll be thankful when it’s over. (See last week here.)

The Contenders

New York Giants (6-4)
I’m leaving them on here, but they’re handing by a wishbone. Eli is good for 1-2 dumb plays a game, and I don’t trust the defense to stop an explosive offense on the road in the playoffs (like Atlanta).

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)
Despite a brutal offensive line and some questions about the defense getting worse as the season goes on, I still fear the Steelers (though not like I did 3-4 weeks ago).

New England Patriots (8-2)
The Pats easily could be 7-3 and I would have debated whether it was fair to keep them among my Elite 6, but Peyton Manning was not Peyton Manning on Sunday. Oh, and I’m not sure when the offensive play calling for New England was handed over to Brad Childress, but take some shots down the field in the fourth quarter please.

Atlanta Falcons (8-2)
I keep hearing very smart people say the Falcons are not legitimate contenders because they aren’t very good on the road or outside of a dome. So what? They are currently one game ahead in the race for homefield, and they play the following schedule from here on out: GB, @ Tampa, @ Carolina, @ Seattle, NO, Carolina. Don’t they win at least four of those? Will anyone else finish better than 12-4 in the NFC? I think the Falcons are the current NFC Super Bowl favorite, with only the Eagles being that close to them.

Philadelphia Eagles (7-3)
So Vick is playing well. And the defense is better than you think. Why do I get the feeling they are going to stumble down the stretch? That all this Vick for MVP talk may sound silly six weeks from now? That being said, if the playoffs started today, I think they beat anybody in the NFC on any field, except for maybe Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
I keep moving the Ravens on and off my list; they befuddle me. But they are just good enough at everything that they could make a deep playoff run.

Bumped since week 10: New York Jets (8-2)
That’s right, I bounced the Jets. I think their luck is going to run out, and though they might make the playoffs, I don’t think the breaks will continue against better competition. If they beat the Patriots in week 13 and/or the Steelers in week 15, they are back on.

Knocking on the door: New York Jets (8-2); New Orleans Saints (7-3); Green Bay Packers (7-3); Tampa Bay Bucs (7-3); Indianapolis Colts (6-4)

Super Bowl Pick: Patriots beat the Falcons

The Turkeys

Dallas Cowboys (3-7)
A preseason darling pick turned into disaster. I can say this is a little surprising, but they certainly had bust potential: bad coach, overrated QB, large holes in the defense. I just thought the offense would be top 5 — and it’s barely top 20. And the thought of Dallas hosting the Eagles or Giants in the Super Bowl is pretty funny.

San Francisco 49ers (3-7)
Another preseason darling gone wrong. One piece of advice: do not hinge your hopes on a QB with a lifetime QB rating of 70 and a completion % below 57. Just saying.

Houston Texans (4-6)
Remember when the Texans were 3-1 and seemed like the favorites to win the AFC South? I can’t imagine coach Gary Kubiak makes it past this season. I know some fans and media are pointing at Matt Schaub, but the offense is good while the defense is historically atrocious; pretty sure he has nothing to do with baking that pie.

Will Be Turkeys by Christmas

Chicago Bears (7-3)
Like the visions you may dream after eating too much, this team is not for real. Yes, I can hear Charles Barkley in my head saying, “You’re as good as your record!”, but are they really? They have one really quality win: Green Bay at home. Yes, if they beat Philly on Sunday and take down New England in week 14, I may eat some crow. Football Outsiders has them ranked as the 23th best team in football, so I think them not making the playoffs is just as likely as them making the playoffs. (This confusing and completely unhelpful sentence was sponsored by the John Madden turducken.)

Washington Redskins (5-5)
Shanahans & Co. are hanging around, but stick a fork in ’em. They are Chicago, but with the record to match, and I really think this marriage with Donovan ends poorly. Maybe not Favre in Minnesota poorly, but we’re grading on a curve.

NFL Team That Matter: Week 10

It seems like everything has changed in the last two weeks, so it’s time for an update from my take in week 8. Just a reminder: the list below is not in rank order, but who’s been on the Contender list the longest without getting knocked off.

The Contenders

New York Giants (6-3)
I hear a lot of experts crowing about the G-Men. There certainly is a lot to like — Football Outsiders ranks them as the No. 6 team offensively and the top team defensively. But after five straight wins, they lost to the hapless, emotionless Cowboys. Sure, it was a classic let-down type game, but I’m not 100% sure I trust the Giants in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
I almost bumped them out off the contender list after that listless showing at home against the Patriots. But I still like them too much. The  defense is good, and Big Ben always scares me in the playoffs. But that offensive line was horrible — the Patriots pass rush should not be able to generate that much pressure.

New England Patriots (7-2)
If I had done this last week, the Pats would have come off and come back on — that’s what happens when you lose to the Browns one week and then go into Pittsburgh and destroy the Steelers the next. I don’t know what to do with this team. The offense is really good, even without Randy ‘Forget the Titan’ Moss. But the defense is not very good — even if it’s improving, especially with some really talented young players who are improving week-to-week. I think I’m beginning to be a believer. Maybe.

Atlanta Falcons (7-2)
I like the Falcons a lot at home (5-0) and not so much on the road (2-2). But as of today, they would get homefield in the NFC, which should scare the rest of the conference. They may not be the best NFC team on a nuetral field, but that may not matter come playoff time.

Philadelphia Eagles (6-3)
Many are calling this the return of the old Michael Vick. They are wrong. This is Vick 2.0, a better version of the old, mercurial passer/runner. In his career, Vick is a 54% passer (which is not good); this year he’s completing 63% of his passes. Has he finally figuring out how to be a QB? Or does he finally have the weapons he needed in Atlanta? Or is this just a streak that will evaporate? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t want to face this team in the playoffs — which is the first time I’ve ever thought that about a Vick-led team.

New York Jets (7-2)
Much like the Patriots, I don’t trust this team. The defense is not as good as people say it is (No. 12 according to Football Outsiders), and Sanchez is either awesome or awful — not what I want in a playoff QB. Still, it definitely wouldn’t shock me if they won the AFC.

Bumped since week 8: Kansas City Chiefs (5-4); New Orleans Saints (6-3)
Knocking on the door: New Orleans Saints (6-3); Green Bay Packers (6-3); Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3); Baltimore Ravens (6-3); Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Super Bowl Pick: Patriots beat the Falcons

Aren’t going to win the Super Bowl but…

Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
Washington Redskins (4-5)
Which team would you rather be a fan of today? You had to think about that, didn’t you?

 

Favre Overplayed

I don’t usually like anything Dan Shaughnessy writes. I usually avoid his columns all together. He is the worst sort of sports columnist, who stirs the drink without any real substance, and then sits back and enjoys the havoc he had a hand in creating.

But on Twitter this weekend I clicked on a Patriots headline and was taken to this Shaughnessy column about none other than Brett Favre. Despite my annoyance with Shaughnessy’s usual ridiculousness (like a swipe at Manny Ramirez), I actually agreed with most of what Shaughnessy wrote. No one was as shocked as I was.

I don’t view Favre as either hero or villian. I respect his ability to play through pain, and his skills are remarkable, HOF-worthy. Even yesterday, before getting knocked out, Favre played very well: 22-for-32, 259 yards with his one interception laying more on the butterfingers of Percy Harvin than on the arm of Favre.

But does he have to talk about it so much? Shaughnessy used several examples of NFL players who played through injuries without ever talking about them to the press. Some of Favre’s charm and popularity come from how open he is with the press, and in a way, with us as fans. But that same charming trait has become an annoyance for many of us, not because of Favre himself (I still love watching the man sling the ball around), but more because of the Favre saturation that is perpetuated mainly by ESPN, with Fox, NBC and other outlets as willing co-conspirators.

I won’t get into Favre’s person exploits here; suffice it to say, we as fans equate too much of an athletes on-field performance to off-field character traits. I’m not sure the two things are correlated at all.

Favre is like a song you got sick of when it was popular, when it became too overplayed. But several years later, when the popularity has died down and you hear the song on the radio, you find yourself singing along and thinking, “Wow. This is a good song.”

That’s how I believe I’ll view Favre several years after he retires (if that ever happens). Over the course of his career, Favre has been a consistent top-10 QB, with several top 5 seasons, an awesome career peak (95-97), and then saved his best season for age 40 season. You, me, Dan Shaughnessy, we all may be annoyed by Mr. Favre right now, but we’re going to miss him when he’s finally gone.

NFL Teams That Matter: Week 7

I started the NFL season by telling you which teams matter in the NFL — which six teams were legitimate Super Bowl contenders, and which four teams would still be interesting even if they didn’t contend. I also did this again after week 3.

Of my six original contenders, I still feel good about four of them: Saints, Patriots, Colts, Ravens (though the Ravens and Colts didn’t make my top 6 contenders this week). I think the Packers might get serious if the injury bug ever leaves them. And I think the Chargers are completely dead at 2-5. Not too shabby. So who are the teams that matter at week 7?

The Contenders

Giants (5-2)*
Steelers (5-1)
Patriots (5-1)*
Jets (5-1)
Chiefs (4-2)*
Falcons (5-2)
* new teams since week 3

From my aforementioned pre-season list, only the Steelers and Jets have remained throughout the season.

I hesitating putting the Chiefs on this list. Football Outsides has them, statistically speaking, as the 4th best team in the NFL right now. So it’s probably time to stop considering them a fluke , though I wouldn’t be totally shocked if they’re not on my list 4-6 weeks from now (or even missed the playoffs completely). But as of today, they smell like a contender.

If I had to pick a Super Bowl today, it would be Steelers and Giants. I didn’t think the Giants were going to be anything more than a borderline wild card team this year, but their defense has been awesome and the offense is good enough. Sounds similar to a formula that took them to the Super Bowl a couple of years back.

Dropped from the list of contenders since Week 3: Colts, Bears, Texans, Packers, Saints

Aren’t winning the Super Bowl but…

Broncos (2-5)
Cowboys (1-5)
Chargers (2-5)
Saints (4-3)

It was hard to narrow this list down to just four teams, but I wanted to keep this gimmicky post to 10 teams. As I was listening to the BS Report Podcast, Bill Simmons pointed out that Denver is 4-13 is its last 17 games after starting 2009 6-0. Josh McDaniels may start to feel a warm feeling on his rear end.

The struggles of the Cowboys are well-documented, and I don’t think even if Tony Romo hadn’t been hurt that this season wouldn’t have been 6-10 at best. Now it’s more likely 3-13. At least we won’t have to listen to all the media fawn over how good this Dallas team could be. (Yes, I am talking about you, Jon Gruden.)

I really hope the Saints return to form, because I love watching Drew Brees work his magic. But there is something missing this season; they look very mediocre. I know, injuries have sapped their depth, but I think the Super Bowl hangover will keep them out of contention this season, even if they make the playoffs (which is likely in the pathetic NFC).

NFL Week 3 Update: The Teams that Matter

In my NFL preview, I talked about the ten NFL teams I thought would matter in the 2010. I’ve decided to update this list periodically throughout the season, and I think after week 3 is a good time to do it. So here are the NFL teams that matter.

The Contenders

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0)*
Chicago Bears (3-0)*
Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
New York Jets (2-1)*
Houston Texans (2-1)*
Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Atlanta Falcons (2-1)*
New Orleans Saints (2-1)
* new to the contenders list

This is your list (not necessarily in order). The Steelers are actually the story here; Big Ben sits out due to his own stupidity, and the Steelers roll. As of today, their defensive superiority and offensive efficiency make them the team to beat in the AFC.

The NFC is a little more complicated. After the Bears beat the Packers on Monday, the Cutler-lead team is the class of the conference. But I still believe in the Packers, and even if the Saints have exhibited a little bit of a Super Bowl hangover, I would not count them out.

There are some other interesting teams in here. If Houston had defeated Dallas on Sunday, I might have made them the AFC favorite. Atlanta sent a message by beating New Orleans. And don’t sleep on the Colts. Peyton Manning will come into your house will his friend Justin Timberlake and mess you up.

Dropped out of contention: Patriots, Ravens, Chargers

Won’t win the Super Bowl but…

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
Washington (1-2)
San Francisco 49ers (0-3)

The Chiefs mystify me. How are they 3-0? Is this actually a good team? According to Football Outsiders, the have the 17th best offense and 15th best defense. This doesn’t seem like a contending team to me. After a week 4 bye, they travel to Indy and Houston. After week 6, this team will be 3-2 we won’t be talking about them anymore.

The Niners were the fashionable pick to win the NFC West this year. They have been dismantled twice on the road (KC and Seattle) and then fought hard at home but ultimately lost to the Saints. Could they finish 8-8 and win the division? Sure. Could they finish 3-13 and fire Singletary by Thanksgiving? Yeah. But Alex Smith is not a legitimate NFL QB, and there’s no real answer within the organization. Jeff Garcia is playing in the UFL right now; I might keep him on speed dial.

Patriot Panic? Not Yet

I was so upset about the Patriots crushing 28-14 loss to the Jets that I couldn’t talk about it for days. After a great first half where I giggled like a little girl after watching Randy Moss make one of the best one-handed grabs I’ve ever seen, I was crying like a little girl by the end.

Why was I so upset by a week 2 loss? I mean, there’s a lot of football left. There are two major reasons.

First, I hate the Jets, especially with Rex Ryan in charge. I don’t really have anything against Mark Sanchez, but I felt pretty good when it looked like the Pats defense was going to force the Jets offense into throwing to beat us. But then the Sanchize drops 220 yards and 3 TDs on the Patriots’ overmatched defensive backfield and actually outplayed Tom Brady in the second half. (Writing that made me sick.)

That brings me to my second point.  The New England defense allowed three drives of 60+ yards in the second half. All three of these ended in scores (two TDs and one FG). So after a decent defensive performance in the first half , the Patriots were lit up by a team that was 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency last year according to Football Outsiders.

But I’m not panicking. It is week 2, and the Patriots are a young team defensively. Here are the top two reasons I think the Patriots are still playoff-bound and a Super Bowl contender:

1. Tom Brady and his boys. The Patriots have an elite top-5 offense, with weapons all over the field. Moss and Welker are the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL, and Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski may be the best pair of rookie TEs I’ve ever seen on the same team. Yes, the Kevin Faulk injury is a huge blow, but I think the coaching staff adjusts, and the Patriots continue piling up yards and points.
2. The defense will get better. Again referencing the awesome advanced stats at Football Outsiders, New England has the 4th worst defense in the NFL through week 2. That is not good. They are OK against the run, and atrocious against the pass. I do not believe this defense becomes elite or even really an asset this season, but I believe it will cease to be a liability. As I mentioned in my NFL season preview, the young New England defense will improve as the season goes on. Devin McCourty is the real deal, Jerod Mayo is awesome, Brandon Spikes will make more of an impact as the season goes on, and other young players will improve. If this becomes a top 20 defense that can keep from giving up 25+ points to average offenses (like the Jets), then New England will be in good shape.

H-A-T-E. I hate the Jets.
I write that because it’s fun, but I don’t think I gave New York enough credit in my aforementioned NFL preview. As we all know, the Jets play elite defense. And last year the recipe was to keep the offense conservative and not make back-breaking mistakes. If the Jets open up the offense and let Sanchez play a little, this team gets more dangerous (that’s if Sanchez can make the plays on a consistent basis). I’m not ready to call them legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but in 2-3 weeks I might be forced to.

Patriots better than expected

The New England Patriots won in convincing fashion yesterday, walking all over the Cincinnati Bengals. The final score may have been somewhat close (38-24), but the Pats dominated their visitors from Ohio.

So what did we learn from Week 1? Nothing for sure (it’s too early for that), but here are some of my key observations.

We’ve got weapons. I don’t know if you noticed, but Tom Brady has a loaded offense. None of the RBs are world-class, but Fred Taylor and B. Green-Ellis are good enough, and we all know about Kevin Faulk. But look at who can catch the ball. Moss. Welker. And a trio of rookies I really like: TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and WR Brandon Tate. I think surpassing 30 points will be common for the 2010 Patriots; think 2007-light.

Talent on defense. Write down the name Devin McCourty. He was drafted by the Patriots in the 1st round earlier this year, and on his first play in the NFL he covered TO stride-for-stride and broke up a potential big gain. He and the other New England DBs played well, and the front seven played well enough. As I wrote in my NFL season preview, I really like the Patriots’ defensive backfield. By Week 8 or 9, I think McCourty-Merriweather-Sanders-Bulter becomes the strength of the defense.

Tom needs a haircut. OK, I actually don’t care about Tom Brady’s long locks. But he looked really good (from a football perspective). He moved well in the pocket, he was hitting open receivers. He looked like vintage Tom Brady. What a week for the guy: car accident, big-time contact extension, opening-week win.

Rolling stones gather no Moss. I love how people were surprised at Randy Moss’ 15-minute post-game rant about his contract status. This is Randy Moss! Yes, he had been a good trooper in three seasons with New England, but he is a time bomb. I don’t think Brady and Bill will let this stand, and so I’m not really worried about it.

Rest of the season prediction: 12-4.

NFL Preview: The Ten Teams That Matter

Last year I previewed the NFL in a traditional fashion, predicting the playoffs and Super Bowl champ, blah, blah. Not this year. Only a few teams matter in the NFL in any given season, and here are the six teams that can win the Super Bowl, followed by four teams that will keep me watching for other reasons.

The Contenders

New Orleans Saints
Everything begins and ends with Brees and the Saints. Will they repeat? History says no. There are 31 other teams gunning for the title, and each Super Bowel winner needs some luck. Still, the powerful offensive weapons are there, and the NFC is in flux. I’m also a big fan of this team: I’m a Purdue guy (go Brees!) and I just like this team. So on the NFC side of the bracket, I will be rooting for them.

Indianapolis Colts
For the Colts, it’s a question of legacy. There is not doubt this Peyton-led team has been one of the most dominant teams of its time, and Manning has established himself as one of the greatest QBs of all-time. But after the loss to the Saints, the whispers of ‘chokers’ have begun again. Is it fair? Not really. They’ve won a Super Bowl after all. But if Peyton & Co. want to be thought of as one of the greatest teams ever, another title is necessary.

New England Patriots
Bill Simmons pointed out in his NFL QB ranking preview that Brady was actually the top-ranked QB in 2009 according to the advanced stats at Football Outsiders. The offense will have weapons, and I think the Patriot TEs will be the difference. Crumpler is an awesome blocker, Gronkowski is versatile, and Fernandez will be a weapon in the passing game. And I think the young defense hits its stride by week 8 or so. In the AFC East forget the Dolphins, ignore the Jets — it’s all about the Pats.

This is also about history for Tom Brady. Before Manning won a Super Bowl, they had been the Montana-Marino of their day — winning vs. statistical excellence. For some reason, Brady’s star has lost a little luster. He’s been human in the postseason. Another Super Bowl title puts to bed the Brady vs. Manning debate, and puts Brady in the discussion as the best ever.

Green Bay Packers
I live just south of Green Bay. I can’t really describe the passion of Packers fans, and this is coming from a guy who has lived in Boston and is a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation. Packers fans are like college football fans on steroids. And the expectations are high, for good reason. Aaron Rodgers is a top 10 QB, the offense has weapons, and the defense was top 5 last season. And in many ways Rodgers needs to win a title, so he can exorcise his demons, similar to what Steve Young did to the ghost of Joe Montana in San Francisco.

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will be fascinating to watch — they might win the Super Bowl, or they may miss the playoffs. It all depends on two big factors: The development of Joe Flacco, and whether the defensive secondary can be good enough to let the Raven front seven do its things.

San Diego Chargers
Do you know how good Phillip Rivers is? According to Football Outsiders, he was the third best QB behind Brady and Manning. In 2008? No. 3. So he’s been a Top 3 QB for two straight seasons, and it seems like he’s in no discussions of league’s best QB. Why? He hasn’t won a Super Bowl, he hasn’t even got to a Super Bowl. And having Brees, the QB the Chargers let go to give Rivers the job, winning a Super Bowl probably makes it worse for Rivers, right or wrong.

But I don’t think the Chargers are one of the six teams to beat in the NFL in 2010 just because of Rivers. I think the rushing game will be better with rookie Ryan Matthews in place of Sproles as the feature back, and the defense is good enough. This team was 13-3 last season, and though I don’t think they’ll get 13 wins, they will win the AFC West and make a Super Bowl run.

Won’t win the Super Bowl, but…

Dallas Cowboys
A lot of people have the Cowboys as Super Bowl contenders — I just don’t see it. Will they make the playoff? Likely. Will they be exciting and entertaining? Most certainly. Will Jerry Jones be worth several comedic moments? That’s a 100% lock. And that’s what makes this team interesting: Jerry Jones. Yeah, they have some good players, yeah they’re a decent team, but if they start 0-4, the drama is what crazy thing Jerry will do. So that makes the Cowboys always entertaining.

Washington
Daniel Snyder is usually what makes Washington interesting, but this season it’s football related, with new coach Mike Shanahan and new QB Donovan McNabb. It is very likely that if I invest in Sunday Ticket, I will check in on Washington more frequently than their standing would suggest. Can Shanahan turn Washington into a perennial contender? Can McNabb exact revenge upon the Eagles for letting him go? I love these story lines.

New York Jets
I hate the Jets and I dislike Rex Ryan, so let me get that out of the way. Many pundits have them as serious contenders, especially after their unlikely playoff run last season. My emotions are likely clouding my vision, but I don’t see it. Mark Sanchez can be frazzled. The defense is very good, but certain offenses can break it down. And Ryan is an arrogant fool. So nothing would make me happier than a 6-10 season out of the Jets. Well, maybe a 0-16 season.

Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre. No name in football elicits as much passions. His defenders are starting to weary a little, but still, he had a season for the ages last year, and were it not for a plethora of turnovers in the playoff game against the Saints, he might have retired with another title. So why can’t they make another run?

Lots of reasons. Favre’s remarkable season was very improbable, especially seeing as he had been pretty bad the season before in New York. I don’t think he can repeat it, and the drop off to Tavaris Jackson is massive. His receiving core is banged up, and they will surprise no one this year. I think they’re best hope is riding Peterson for the first 8-10 games of the year to keep Favre healthy, and then letting the old man loose. Either way though, I think 8-8 is as probable as another playoff run. That’s why it will be fun to watch.