NFL Teams That Matter: The Playoffs are Coming

The Patriots are the team to beat in the NFL right now. Obviously I can be accused of bias — I am a New England fan. Fine, point the bias gun at me and shoot away.

But did you see that beatdown they smacked the Jets with last night? Everybody knows how potent the offense is, that Tom Brady is having another amazing season, that despite jettisoning Randy Moss, the offense has thrived. And the defense, while still in the bottom third of the NFL, is a young, improving unit with some player makers. So while I don’t think there are any givens in the NFL (and the 2007 Patriots surely showed that), they are the NFL’s best team today, and that’s something 31 other teams can’t say.

I am changing my format a little. Instead of listing them by how long they’ve been on the list, here are my five Super Bowl contenders ranked in order. I cut the list down to five because I only felt good about two AFC teams.

The Contenders

1. Patriots (10-2). In case you missed it, the Pats dominated the Jets last night to the tune of 45-3. It was one of the most impressive beatdowns I’ve seen one good team give another in a long time. Achilles heal: The defense, which looked great against a mediocre Jets offense, is still susceptible to good offenses. The nice thing is that the only really good AFC offense that’s likely to make the playoffs is the Chiefs.
2. Falcons (10-2). The mainstream media is finally catching the vision: as the NFC leaders at 10-2, the Falcons are likely to have homefield advantage through the playoffs. They are 6-0 at home in 2010, and Matt Ryan is like 47-1 at home life time. Yeah, they’re the NFC favorites. Achilles Heal: Playing on the road. If they stumble down the stretch, their playoff run could be very short.
3. Saints (9-3). Remember when New Orleans was 4-3 and we were talking about whether a Super Bowl hangover would keep them out of the playoffs? Six wins later, they seem like the team most likely to unseat the Falcons in the NFC. Achilles Heal: During this 5-game win streak, only one win (Pittsburgh) has come against a quality opponent. They may not be as good as we think.
4. Steelers (9-3). After beating the Ravens, I think the Steelers have cemented their place as the second team in the AFC, especially since Ben will not miss any time with his broken nose. Achilles Heal: Pittsburgh’s three loses this year: Baltimore, New England, @ New Orleans. Victories against teams above .500: Atlanta, @ Tampa Bay, @ Baltimore. They are inconsistent against good teams (but they do beat all the lesser teams).
5. Eagles (8-4). Call this the Vick factor. Do I think they can beat the Falcons on the road? Probably not. Do I think they’re better than the Saints? No. But if Vick got hot, would it shock me to see them playing in the Super Bowl? Absolutely not. Achilles Heal: The most recent (and relevant) loses have come on the road to lesser teams than New Orleans or Atlanta (@ Titans, @ Bears).

Knocked off since Week 11: Giants (8-4); Ravens (8-4)

Outside looking up: Jets (9-3); Ravens (8-4); Giants (8-4); Packers (8-4)

Patriot Panic? Not Yet

I was so upset about the Patriots crushing 28-14 loss to the Jets that I couldn’t talk about it for days. After a great first half where I giggled like a little girl after watching Randy Moss make one of the best one-handed grabs I’ve ever seen, I was crying like a little girl by the end.

Why was I so upset by a week 2 loss? I mean, there’s a lot of football left. There are two major reasons.

First, I hate the Jets, especially with Rex Ryan in charge. I don’t really have anything against Mark Sanchez, but I felt pretty good when it looked like the Pats defense was going to force the Jets offense into throwing to beat us. But then the Sanchize drops 220 yards and 3 TDs on the Patriots’ overmatched defensive backfield and actually outplayed Tom Brady in the second half. (Writing that made me sick.)

That brings me to my second point.  The New England defense allowed three drives of 60+ yards in the second half. All three of these ended in scores (two TDs and one FG). So after a decent defensive performance in the first half , the Patriots were lit up by a team that was 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency last year according to Football Outsiders.

But I’m not panicking. It is week 2, and the Patriots are a young team defensively. Here are the top two reasons I think the Patriots are still playoff-bound and a Super Bowl contender:

1. Tom Brady and his boys. The Patriots have an elite top-5 offense, with weapons all over the field. Moss and Welker are the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL, and Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski may be the best pair of rookie TEs I’ve ever seen on the same team. Yes, the Kevin Faulk injury is a huge blow, but I think the coaching staff adjusts, and the Patriots continue piling up yards and points.
2. The defense will get better. Again referencing the awesome advanced stats at Football Outsiders, New England has the 4th worst defense in the NFL through week 2. That is not good. They are OK against the run, and atrocious against the pass. I do not believe this defense becomes elite or even really an asset this season, but I believe it will cease to be a liability. As I mentioned in my NFL season preview, the young New England defense will improve as the season goes on. Devin McCourty is the real deal, Jerod Mayo is awesome, Brandon Spikes will make more of an impact as the season goes on, and other young players will improve. If this becomes a top 20 defense that can keep from giving up 25+ points to average offenses (like the Jets), then New England will be in good shape.

H-A-T-E. I hate the Jets.
I write that because it’s fun, but I don’t think I gave New York enough credit in my aforementioned NFL preview. As we all know, the Jets play elite defense. And last year the recipe was to keep the offense conservative and not make back-breaking mistakes. If the Jets open up the offense and let Sanchez play a little, this team gets more dangerous (that’s if Sanchez can make the plays on a consistent basis). I’m not ready to call them legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but in 2-3 weeks I might be forced to.

Patriots better than expected

The New England Patriots won in convincing fashion yesterday, walking all over the Cincinnati Bengals. The final score may have been somewhat close (38-24), but the Pats dominated their visitors from Ohio.

So what did we learn from Week 1? Nothing for sure (it’s too early for that), but here are some of my key observations.

We’ve got weapons. I don’t know if you noticed, but Tom Brady has a loaded offense. None of the RBs are world-class, but Fred Taylor and B. Green-Ellis are good enough, and we all know about Kevin Faulk. But look at who can catch the ball. Moss. Welker. And a trio of rookies I really like: TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, and WR Brandon Tate. I think surpassing 30 points will be common for the 2010 Patriots; think 2007-light.

Talent on defense. Write down the name Devin McCourty. He was drafted by the Patriots in the 1st round earlier this year, and on his first play in the NFL he covered TO stride-for-stride and broke up a potential big gain. He and the other New England DBs played well, and the front seven played well enough. As I wrote in my NFL season preview, I really like the Patriots’ defensive backfield. By Week 8 or 9, I think McCourty-Merriweather-Sanders-Bulter becomes the strength of the defense.

Tom needs a haircut. OK, I actually don’t care about Tom Brady’s long locks. But he looked really good (from a football perspective). He moved well in the pocket, he was hitting open receivers. He looked like vintage Tom Brady. What a week for the guy: car accident, big-time contact extension, opening-week win.

Rolling stones gather no Moss. I love how people were surprised at Randy Moss’ 15-minute post-game rant about his contract status. This is Randy Moss! Yes, he had been a good trooper in three seasons with New England, but he is a time bomb. I don’t think Brady and Bill will let this stand, and so I’m not really worried about it.

Rest of the season prediction: 12-4.