NFL Preview: The Ten Teams That Matter

Last year I previewed the NFL in a traditional fashion, predicting the playoffs and Super Bowl champ, blah, blah. Not this year. Only a few teams matter in the NFL in any given season, and here are the six teams that can win the Super Bowl, followed by four teams that will keep me watching for other reasons.

The Contenders

New Orleans Saints
Everything begins and ends with Brees and the Saints. Will they repeat? History says no. There are 31 other teams gunning for the title, and each Super Bowel winner needs some luck. Still, the powerful offensive weapons are there, and the NFC is in flux. I’m also a big fan of this team: I’m a Purdue guy (go Brees!) and I just like this team. So on the NFC side of the bracket, I will be rooting for them.

Indianapolis Colts
For the Colts, it’s a question of legacy. There is not doubt this Peyton-led team has been one of the most dominant teams of its time, and Manning has established himself as one of the greatest QBs of all-time. But after the loss to the Saints, the whispers of ‘chokers’ have begun again. Is it fair? Not really. They’ve won a Super Bowl after all. But if Peyton & Co. want to be thought of as one of the greatest teams ever, another title is necessary.

New England Patriots
Bill Simmons pointed out in his NFL QB ranking preview that Brady was actually the top-ranked QB in 2009 according to the advanced stats at Football Outsiders. The offense will have weapons, and I think the Patriot TEs will be the difference. Crumpler is an awesome blocker, Gronkowski is versatile, and Fernandez will be a weapon in the passing game. And I think the young defense hits its stride by week 8 or so. In the AFC East forget the Dolphins, ignore the Jets — it’s all about the Pats.

This is also about history for Tom Brady. Before Manning won a Super Bowl, they had been the Montana-Marino of their day — winning vs. statistical excellence. For some reason, Brady’s star has lost a little luster. He’s been human in the postseason. Another Super Bowl title puts to bed the Brady vs. Manning debate, and puts Brady in the discussion as the best ever.

Green Bay Packers
I live just south of Green Bay. I can’t really describe the passion of Packers fans, and this is coming from a guy who has lived in Boston and is a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation. Packers fans are like college football fans on steroids. And the expectations are high, for good reason. Aaron Rodgers is a top 10 QB, the offense has weapons, and the defense was top 5 last season. And in many ways Rodgers needs to win a title, so he can exorcise his demons, similar to what Steve Young did to the ghost of Joe Montana in San Francisco.

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens will be fascinating to watch — they might win the Super Bowl, or they may miss the playoffs. It all depends on two big factors: The development of Joe Flacco, and whether the defensive secondary can be good enough to let the Raven front seven do its things.

San Diego Chargers
Do you know how good Phillip Rivers is? According to Football Outsiders, he was the third best QB behind Brady and Manning. In 2008? No. 3. So he’s been a Top 3 QB for two straight seasons, and it seems like he’s in no discussions of league’s best QB. Why? He hasn’t won a Super Bowl, he hasn’t even got to a Super Bowl. And having Brees, the QB the Chargers let go to give Rivers the job, winning a Super Bowl probably makes it worse for Rivers, right or wrong.

But I don’t think the Chargers are one of the six teams to beat in the NFL in 2010 just because of Rivers. I think the rushing game will be better with rookie Ryan Matthews in place of Sproles as the feature back, and the defense is good enough. This team was 13-3 last season, and though I don’t think they’ll get 13 wins, they will win the AFC West and make a Super Bowl run.

Won’t win the Super Bowl, but…

Dallas Cowboys
A lot of people have the Cowboys as Super Bowl contenders — I just don’t see it. Will they make the playoff? Likely. Will they be exciting and entertaining? Most certainly. Will Jerry Jones be worth several comedic moments? That’s a 100% lock. And that’s what makes this team interesting: Jerry Jones. Yeah, they have some good players, yeah they’re a decent team, but if they start 0-4, the drama is what crazy thing Jerry will do. So that makes the Cowboys always entertaining.

Washington
Daniel Snyder is usually what makes Washington interesting, but this season it’s football related, with new coach Mike Shanahan and new QB Donovan McNabb. It is very likely that if I invest in Sunday Ticket, I will check in on Washington more frequently than their standing would suggest. Can Shanahan turn Washington into a perennial contender? Can McNabb exact revenge upon the Eagles for letting him go? I love these story lines.

New York Jets
I hate the Jets and I dislike Rex Ryan, so let me get that out of the way. Many pundits have them as serious contenders, especially after their unlikely playoff run last season. My emotions are likely clouding my vision, but I don’t see it. Mark Sanchez can be frazzled. The defense is very good, but certain offenses can break it down. And Ryan is an arrogant fool. So nothing would make me happier than a 6-10 season out of the Jets. Well, maybe a 0-16 season.

Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre. No name in football elicits as much passions. His defenders are starting to weary a little, but still, he had a season for the ages last year, and were it not for a plethora of turnovers in the playoff game against the Saints, he might have retired with another title. So why can’t they make another run?

Lots of reasons. Favre’s remarkable season was very improbable, especially seeing as he had been pretty bad the season before in New York. I don’t think he can repeat it, and the drop off to Tavaris Jackson is massive. His receiving core is banged up, and they will surprise no one this year. I think they’re best hope is riding Peterson for the first 8-10 games of the year to keep Favre healthy, and then letting the old man loose. Either way though, I think 8-8 is as probable as another playoff run. That’s why it will be fun to watch.